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GOP Fears Trump's Tariffs Could Backfire in 2026 Midterms

As the economic situation in the U.S. remains unstable due to President Trump's tariffs on specific countries, some members of the Republican party now fear that this will affect next year's midterm elections and result in their loss.

According to NBC News, House and Senate leaders are already consulting with the White House about key candidates who may benefit from Trump's endorsement to navigate primaries and gin up general election support. (Dixon.M, Gomez H, Bowman B, (2025) Retrieved May 11. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/trump-white-houses-early-2026-midterm-strategy-rcna203544.)

Regina Wilkins, a registered Republican voter, says there's still time for the tariffs to positively impact the economy and influence a positive outcome for the midterms.

"Certainly, it would be premature to conclude that the Democrats will win the midterms based on current events in the country. I believe that by the end of the year, we might have a different economic outlook that will give us a boost in the ballot," she said.

According to the PEW Research Center, in February, 94% of those who reported voting for Trump in 2024 approved of how he handled his job. This number has declined to 88% today.

His approval rate is 43%, the same as when he won the elections last year. Still, more Americans say that, compared with the Biden administration, the Trump administration's policies have made the economy weaker (49%) rather than stronger (39%).

Wilkins says the stock market's " positive " response to the tariffs proves that the economy will be stronger by the end of this year.

"There is a lot of misinformation from the Democrats to discredit President Trump. For example, some people will tell you that prices are increasing, but that is untrue. Prices of one or two things may go up; that is normal in a democracy," she said.

Thirteen members of Congress have announced that they will not seek reelection in 2026, setting the stage for what some call a transformative midterm election cycle with both chambers in the balance.

According to Ballotpedia, 33 U.S. Senate seats are scheduled for regular elections next year, with 13 held by Democrats and 20 by Republicans.

The Center for Politics says the outcome of the elections depends on which state has more vacant seats. Factors peculiar to each Senate seat, such as partisanship and the strength of individual candidates, can tilt the overall outcome.

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